Good mornin', neighbors, and welcome to the Bitcoin Ranch™ Ag Report for the week of October 30. Pour a cup of coffee and let's see how the markets traveled this week.
The Board
| Market | This week | A week ago | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC-USD) | $77,305 | $81,582 | −$4,277 | ▼ −5.2% |
| S&P 500 | 7,605.44 | 7,623.68 | −18.24 | ▼ −0.24% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,560.93 | 25,955.34 | −394.41 | ▼ −1.52% |
| Dow Jones Industrials | 52,008.92 | 52,215.16 | −206.24 | ▼ −0.39% |
| Live cattle, Dec (¢/lb) | 221.55 | 231.12 | −9.57 | ▼ −4.1% |
| Feeder cattle, Nov (¢/lb) | 338.25 | 348.125 | −9.875 | ▼ −2.8% |
| CME Feeder Cattle Index (Oct 28 vs Oct 23) | 351.43 | 348.55 | +2.88 | ▲ +0.8% |
| Corn, Dec (¢/bu) | 449.00 | 456.00 | −7.00 | ▼ −1.5% |
| Soybeans, Nov (¢/bu) | 1,223.50 | 1,256.50 | −33.00 | ▼ −2.6% |
| Wheat, Chicago Dec (¢/bu) | 601.00 | 625.00 | −24.00 | ▼ −3.8% |
| Lean hogs, Dec (¢/lb) | 59.20 | 65.575 | −6.375 | ▼ −9.7% |
Bitcoin and stock prices as of about 10:30 a.m. CT Friday, Oct 30, compared with 10 a.m. CT and the closing bell on Friday, Oct 23. Futures prices as of about 10:20 a.m. CT (delayed), compared with the Oct 23 settlements. Stocks and futures were still trading, so these are not closing numbers.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin gave up a little better than four thousand dollars on the week. It slipped under $80,000 on Thursday when tech stocks sold off and the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75 to 4 percent with a hawkish tone, and roughly $356 million in leveraged bets got wiped out, per CoinDesk. Then came word Friday of a big security breach at the Binance exchange. Binance says deposits weren't touched and it will cover the losses, but it's a fresh reminder of the old ranch rule: keep your own keys like you keep your own gate latched.
Stocks
Wall Street was mixed to softer. The Dow and the S&P 500 barely moved, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gave back about one and a half percent after some big tech earnings disappointed.
Cattle
Here's the tale of two markets. Futures took a rough week: December live cattle fell about $9.50 and November feeders nearly $10. Cash fed cattle traded $223 to $226 live and around $348 dressed in Nebraska, about $4 lower, and the Choice boxed beef cutout slipped to about $369. Beef export sales were down 41 percent for the week ending Oct 22.
But out at the sale barn, buyers were hungry. Monday at Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, 5,506 head sold with very good demand: feeder steers $5 to $15 higher, 600 to 700 pound steers $20 to $30 higher, and steer and heifer calves $15 to $30 higher, per USDA. The CME Feeder Cattle Index actually rose to 351.43.
The big news on the border: Mexican cattle imports resumed at Columbus, New Mexico, on Oct 26, with Nogales targeted for Nov 30, per AP and Reuters. Traders are watching for as many as 150,000 head before year-end, and USDA is still keeping a close eye on New World screwworm.
Grain and Hay
Corn eased 7 cents, beans dropped 33 cents and wheat lost 24 cents. USDA pegged corn yield at 181.2 bushels an acre, a crop over 16 billion bushels, so there's no shortage of feed in the bins. On hay, the latest USDA Oklahoma Direct Hay Report (Oct 16) said demand stays high, with over 95 percent of the state in moderate drought or worse. The next report was due today but wasn't out yet when we went to press, and we didn't find a current Arkansas hay report.
Hog men had a tough one, too: December lean hogs fell nearly 10 percent to contract lows.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies
Strategy didn't add any bitcoin Oct 19 to 25. Instead it spent about $205 million buying back its own preferred shares, and it still holds 848,517 BTC, per its SEC filing reported by Decrypt. Strive added 1,223 BTC, about $100 million worth. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $441 million through Thursday, four straight days of inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT taking most of it, per Farside data.
What It Means at the Ranch
Paper markets got nervous this week, but real buyers in Oklahoma City paid up for calves. That's a good reminder to watch the sale barn as close as the screen. Feed is plentiful on the grain side, hay is still tight in a dry state, and bitcoin had a choppy week like the weather does in fall. Check your water, count your hay, and we'll talk again next Friday.
Sources: Yahoo Finance (prices), 680 KFEQ (Oct 23 settlements), USDA AMS (Oklahoma National Stockyards, Oklahoma Direct Hay Report), The Cattle Range, The Cattle Site, DTN, CoinDesk, CNBC, BBC, AP, Reuters, Decrypt, Farside Investors. This is market news and commentary for general information only, not financial advice.
Keep reading on the ranch: Bitcoin Explained: Common Questions, Plain Answers and Fall on the Ranch: Getting the Herd Ready for Winter. If you’d like the gear, check out the Bitcoin Ranch Cattle Company Tee.